Who is the favourite to win the Premier League in 2022-23?

Arsenal lead the English Premier League standings at the halfway mark, as Mikel Arteta’s Gunners amassed 50 points from 19 games. The North London club is five points ahead of reigning Premier League champions Manchester City, who have played one game more. 

The Gunners’ game in hand may not make a difference, as they must still play Manchester City twice in the Premier League before the season ends. However, for now, Arsenal are revelling in their Premier League title-winning form. The Gunners haven’t won the Premier League title since 2003-04 and after defeating Manchester United at the Emirates on matchday 20, fans are beginning to believe the championship is possible. 

There is still a lot of football left to play this season in league and cup tournaments. With traditional top-six clubs Chelsea, Liverpool, and Tottenham Hotspur all having unexpectedly poor seasons, Arsenal have filled the title void. Eleven points separate first place from fourth place in the league.

Who are the favourites to win the Premier League 2022-23?

(Odds courtesy of Bet365 on January 27, 2023)

  • Arsenal 8/11
  • Manchester City 5/4
  • Manchester United 40/1
  • Newcastle United 80/1
  • Liverpool 250/1
  • Tottenham Hotspur 500/1
  • Chelsea 1000/1


Arsenal still have a lot to do to lift the league trophy, but betting sites now have the Gunners as the odds-on favourite to win the Premier League. Bookmaker Bet365 has Arsenal at odds of 8/11 to win the league. 

Although Arsenal have led the standings for months, leading bookmakers were apprehensive about putting them as the odds leader. It wasn’t until recently that Arsenal leapfrogged reigning champions Manchester City in the odds. 

According to the predictions website FiveThirtyEight, Arsenal have a 63% chance of winning the Premier League this term. It is the highest percentage of any of the 20 teams in the Premier League. While the numbers back the Gunners to lift the trophy, it cannot be ignored that Arsenal must still play Manchester City twice in the league before the end of the campaign. 

In addition, Arsenal will still play Liverpool, Newcastle, and Chelsea before the end of the season. Arsenal’s April 26 league game against City could be the biggest match the two clubs have ever had if they are still close in the table. It could be like a cup final.

Manchester City

Manchester City were the odds frontrunner at the start of the season and for much of the current campaign. However, the Cityzens’ recent form has led to Arsenal overtaking them. Manchester City may no longer be the bookmakers’ favourite to win the Premier League, but many football fans will still consider them the likeliest team to pick up the title. 

Manchester City are paying for their incredible 2021-22 season in which they pipped Liverpool to the Premier League title on the final day of the season. Erling Haaland has been brilliant for City this season. Without the Norwegian striker, there is an argument to be made that City would be struggling like Liverpool. 

According to FiveThirtyEight, Manchester City have a prediction figure of 34% to win the Premier League. The Sky Blues are just five points off Arsenal and will face off with them twice in the league. Despite the recent dip in form, Manchester City can still overtake Arsenal in the end. 

Newcastle United

Few fans would have believed Newcastle United would be third at this point in the 2022-23 league season. After the initial investment from the club’s ownership, Newcastle United were expected to compete for the title in years to come, but not right now. 

Eddie Howe has rebuilt his coaching career and is making a host of players better to fulfil their potential. Howe is doing exactly what a coach should do, he is making players better. 

Newcastle United are 11 points off Arsenal in the title race. The club won’t be upset about the distance between them and the Gunners, however. Newcastle United are predicted to qualify for the Champions League at 55% likely, according to FiveThirtyEight. 

The Magpies will still play Arsenal, Manchester City, and Manchester United, the other three top-four teams, this season. The title isn’t gone yet. 

Manchester United

Manchester United’s chances of winning a first Premier League title since the days of Sir Alex Ferguson are likely gone. The Red Devils’ 1-1 draw versus Crystal Palace and 3-2 loss to Arsenal in January have practically killed off their chances. 

United have picked up 39 points in the league compared to an xPTS of 35.02, according to Understat. The Red Devils are not overachieving as much as Arsenal, but they are still slightly above their expected points figure. 

Erik ten Hag’s team is depending on defence to keep games low scoring. Meanwhile, Marcus Rashford is having a strong season with 18 goals in all competitions. Half of those goals have come in the Premier League. According to FiveThirtyEight, Manchester United and Newcastle have a 1% chance of winning the Premier League.